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Every week the Radix Week in Review records what the ecosystem said would happen, with a date by which it should have happened and the check that will settle it. When the date arrives the claim is scored against the ledger, the repository or the source, and the result is kept here whichever way it went. Nothing is removed from this page because it turned out badly, and nothing is recorded that has no date and no check.

Open predictions

Scoring is unrestricted again. Radix mainnet halted on 31 August 2026 and restarted at 11:35:28.96 UTC on 11 September, 254 hours and 15 minutes later, so a claim needing a transaction after the halt settles like any other from here. Two notes on what this page wrote while it was down. The 30 August note recorded three claims as unscorable for the duration, on the ground that the Gateway answers /state/validators/list with HTTP 500 while its database is behind the network; that was wrong, because the freshness guard is skipped for any request carrying at_ledger_state, and a read pinned to state version 557,840,622 returned HTTP 200 with the full validator set throughout. Those pinned reads stand and the claims they settled stay settled. What this page called that state version does not: 557,840,622 is the last state the Gateway’s status endpoint reported, not the last the ledger reached, and the transaction stream shows the ledger ran on to state version 557,840,627 at epoch 339,897 round 4, timestamped 21:19:48.939 UTC. The halt claim below had that distinction right from the day it was recorded, because its check names the unpinned endpoint and says in terms that /status/gateway-status answers 200 from the frozen ledger and cannot tell a restart from its absence.

ClaimWhoDue byHow it gets checkedRecorded
hyperscale-vm records at least 200 commits in the fortnight from 31 August to 13 September 2026.flightofthefox2026-09-14GitHub API: GET /repos/hyperscalers/hyperscale-vm/commits with since=2026-08-31T00:00:00Z and until=2026-09-14T00:00:00Z, counted across pages on the default branch. Baseline: 338 commits in the seven days to 30 August 2026, all by flightofthefox, across five of seven days, against 11 in hyperscale-rs and none in radixdlt-scrypto, babylon-node or radix-engine-toolkit. Hit at 200 or more commits in the fortnight; miss below it. A single contributor is the whole sample, so a holiday settles this as surely as a change of direction would. First in-window reading, taken 1 September 2026 11:12 UTC: 6 commits, all dated 31 August and none on 1 September, against a baseline pace of roughly 48 a day. Re-read 5 September 2026 23:07 UTC: still 6 commits, the newest of them a451a671 of 31 August 13:21 UTC, so the repository has recorded nothing for five consecutive days and 194 commits remain to be found in the eight days to 13 September. The window opened on the day of the drain, and the repository owner spent that evening liquidating his exposure to Radix in public, which is recorded on the drain page. At one day that reading dated a disruption; at five it is the pace. Re-read 10 September 2026 03:06 UTC, and the two earlier readings were measuring the wrong thing. The same query now returns <strong>59 commits</strong>, and 40 of them carry author dates between 1 and 5 September, the five days both earlier readings recorded as silence. Author and committer timestamps are identical on every one of the 59 and the history holds no merge commit, so nothing was rewritten: the commits were made when they say and reached the default branch afterwards. A commit listing dates the commit, not the push, so it cannot see work held back. flightofthefox said as much in the hyperscale.rs channel while this was happening, at <a href="https://t.me/hyperscale_rs/12134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">t.me/hyperscale_rs/12134</a> on 7 September and <a href="https://t.me/hyperscale_rs/12141" target="_blank" rel="noopener">t.me/hyperscale_rs/12141</a> on 8 September: work was on a feature branch for leg local execution, an almost complete rewrite of how execution works, and he was not merging it early to move a tracker’s score. The check stands as recorded and the claim stays open: 59 of 200, with 141 to find in the four days to 13 September.2026-08-30
At least one of the Radix DAO's 24 governance documents moves from pending to in force, with its SHA-256 digest recorded on the ledger.Radix DAO2026-09-20radixdao.org/govern listed 24 documents across ten categories on 18 August 2026, every one pending and none in force. Re-read 30 August 2026: the page now lists 23 rule-bearing documents, each marked "Signed, awaiting ratification" with its SHA-256 digest published and recorded in ratification proposal GP-PRE-1, and the page says in its own words that nothing there is in force yet. Signing is not ratification, so the claim is untouched by it. Resolved when any document reads as active and its digest is on-ledger. Re-read 30 August 2026 after the Radix Accountability Council activated radixdao.org as the DAO official venue: the index now lists 27 rule-bearing documents, 26 reading "Signed, awaiting ratification" and one pending, the digests recorded in ratification proposal GP-PRE-1, and the page states that nothing there is in force. The count grew and the status did not, so the claim is untouched. Re-read 5 September 2026: radixdao.org/govern lists 24 rule-bearing entries, 23 of them reading "Signed · awaiting ratification" with a published SHA-256 digest and the Roles Registry pending, alongside three reading guides carrying no status at all. The page still states in its own words that nothing there is in force, so a third reading leaves the claim untouched. The count is three below the 27 recorded on 30 August, and the three unstatused guides are the likely difference, so it is not read here as documents being withdrawn.2026-08-18
CaviarNine's two validators, unmentioned in its departure announcement, are deregistered, sold, or have a fee change filed against them.CaviarNine2026-10-04Gateway /state/validators/list for CaviarNine-1 (validator_rdx1sd8c8v9tffjtgqtuzygnctrmyfnhkd63avcgpzuknx3dlklds85rkv) and CaviarNine-2 (validator_rdx1sv7zpyuj27ycmcsnw0de94j2rp93csq6gvcm4dl4yh4p4fxv9j5pqx). Re-read at epoch 339,438 on 30 August 2026: both still registered, both still accepting delegated stake, effective_fee_factor.current 0 on each and no effective_fee_factor.pending, holding 113,701,732 and 115,610,098 XRD. CaviarNine-2 has shed 4,022,122 XRD (3.4%) in the five days since the previous reading while CaviarNine-1 held flat, which is delegators leaving rather than anything the operator has done, and none of it is a hit condition. Read effective_fee_factor.pending, not validator_fee_change_request: both validators have carried a non-null request since epoch 282,893, a cut to 0 that took effect roughly seven months before this claim was recorded and was never cleared, so the raw field is non-null whatever happens next. Hit if either deregisters, stops accepting stake, changes owner, or acquires an effective_fee_factor.pending by the due date. Re-read at epoch 339,487 on 30 August 2026 11:11 UTC: both still registered, both still accepting delegated stake, effective_fee_factor.current 0 on each with no pending, holding 113,723,443 and 115,613,836 XRD. CaviarNine-2 has recovered slightly against the 30 August 07:06 reading. Re-read 6 September 2026 at 11:02 UTC, pinned to state version 557,840,622, epoch 339,896, the last state the Gateway’s status endpoint reported during the halt: both still registered, both still active in epoch, effective_fee_factor.current 0 on each with no pending entry, holding 113,116,830 and 115,034,368 XRD. No hit condition is met, and none can now be met before the network restarts, because deregistering, selling or filing a fee change all require a committed transaction.2026-08-23
The Marshall Islands issues a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC.Radix Accountability Council2026-10-25The Radix Accountability Council reported on 29 August 2026 that it and counsel had agreed amended terms with MIDAO, that payment and submission of RADIX DAO LLC to the Marshall Islands government follow, and that the filing rolls out from Monday 31 August. It also said the registry takes four to six weeks to grant and issue the certificate once the submission is complete, and that it would report advancements rather than every step. Hit when a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC is published or announced, on radixdao.org notices, in the RadixAccountabilityCouncil channel, or in the Marshall Islands registry. The six-week window from 31 August closes on 12 October; this allows a further fortnight. Re-read 5 September 2026, and the date this window is measured from has moved. RAC member Tadkis posted at 13:17:43 UTC on 5 September, at t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/988, that the agreement with MIDAO has been signed and the registration fee paid, and that formal registration is scheduled to begin on Monday, which is 7 September and a week later than the 31 August the council gave on 29 August. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, so the fortnight of slack recorded above is now six days. Re-read 7 September 2026 at 23:06 UTC, and the Monday the window is measured from has now been reported on. In its status update at 20:45:41 UTC, <a href="https://t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1000" target="_blank" rel="noopener">t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1000</a>, the council says the sign-up for MIDAO&rsquo;s service is concluded and that the transition council is working through the remaining administrative steps, up to the point where it is for MIDAO to submit the request to the Marshall Islands. So the engagement is complete and the filing with the registry has not been made, which leaves the four-to-six week grant window not yet started. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, six days inside this claim&rsquo;s due date.2026-08-30

Resolved

ClaimDue byOutcomeEvidenceScored in
Radix mainnet commits a round again, ending the halt that began on 31 August 2026.2026-09-20HitHit at 11:35:28.96 UTC on 11 September 2026, nine days before the due date, and scored on the check exactly as the claim wrote it. Gateway POST /state/validators/list with no at_ledger_state, read at 17:05 UTC on 11 September, answers HTTP 200 with ledger_state.epoch 339,963 and all 287 validators, against a hit condition of any epoch above 339,896. The restart itself is two consecutive entries in the transaction stream with nothing between them: state version 557,840,627 at epoch 339,897 round 4, timestamped 21:19:48.939 UTC on 31 August, then 557,840,628 at epoch 339,897 round 5, timestamped 11:35:28.96 UTC on 11 September, which is 254 hours, 15 minutes and 40 seconds apart. Consensus resumed under a user transaction moratorium that held epoch 339,897 to empty blocks, and the Eagle Ray fork enacted at the start of epoch 339,898, where round 2 committed 17 user transactions at 11:39:25.129 UTC. The Radix Accountability Council confirmed liveness restored at 14:37 UTC, three hours after the fact. The claim named the node runners and they are who settled it: adoption of babylon-node v1.4.0.0 stood at 31.22% of active validator-set stake at 07:12 UTC and cleared two thirds inside the next four hours.Wiki maintenance sweep, 11 September 2026
A babylon-node release carrying the Eagle Ray protocol update is published.2026-09-20HitHit on 8 September 2026, two days before it was scored, and the delay is this ledger’s own fault rather than the release’s. Read at 03:07 UTC on 10 September 2026, GET /repos/radixdlt/babylon-node/releases returns <a href="https://github.com/radixdlt/babylon-node/releases/tag/v1.4.0.0-RC1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">v1.4.0.0-RC1</a>, named Eagle Ray v1.4.0.0-RC1, published 2026-09-08T15:35:42Z from merge commit 7400951e with seven assets attached. That is a tag above v1.3.0.5 whose notes name Eagle Ray, which is the hit condition as recorded on 6 September. The release is flagged pre-release, so GitHub’s /releases/latest still resolves to v1.3.0.5-test.1 of 2026-09-08T12:28:06Z and an operator following the documented install path gets the older build; that matters to a node runner and it is not part of the check, which asked whether a release carrying the protocol update exists. It does.Wiki maintenance sweep, 10 September 2026
StakeSafe's three validators raise their fees as scheduled: Amsterdam and Rotterdam from 15% to 25%, Seed Node from 15% to 100%.2026-09-06HitHit, and scored on evidence the 30 August note recorded as unreadable. The Gateway refuses an unpinned state read while it is five days behind the network, but the freshness guard is skipped for a read that names a ledger state, and the frozen state is 288 epochs past Amsterdam's settling epoch. Read at 11:02 UTC on 6 September 2026 with at_ledger_state pinned to state version 557,840,622, epoch 339,896, the last state the Gateway’s status endpoint reported during the halt: /state/validators/list returns HTTP 200 with all 287 validators. StakeSafe Amsterdam (validator_rdx1s066xuq885l0mttgmx4ptflte6fepkt0c06mqnqtdgajj4mcwh70q4) reads effective_fee_factor.current 0.25 on 75,671,832 XRD; StakeSafe Rotterdam (validator_rdx1s048k34ctk3m57gumema2e5jmhfxhdryyr5hq42xa9q59pvn8lezg8) 0.25 on 78,235,400 XRD; StakeSafe Seed Node (validator_rdx1svlvyezsxp467pznd2kfnhqpenmw7hpdgnxjgu3s8mzxtruz77d3q3) 1 on 210,603 XRD. All three still store validator_fee_factor 0.15, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate and the reason the check named effective_fee_factor. Three of three as claimed, effective at epochs 339,608 and 339,609, roughly a day before the network stopped.Radix Week in Review, 6 September 2026
StakeSafe files a fee change request on the Avaunt Staking validator it bought on 21 August, raising the fee above 2%.2026-09-20HitHit on 26 August 2026, 25 days before the due date, and the settling transaction is on the ledger: txid_rdx17sfhjgn0j8ymny889992j8aemk3q6vrjs2x97v6xpccrhe35w63snnyd3s at 20:47:04 UTC, epoch 338,450, state version 555,398,021. It proves the Avaunt owner badge [834bcbdc3bf9d9211f827af8b2c84c56cd156a4de412690718c624a2beb0] from account_rdx16xrp5e8faqxfa8j20xh5u29js8umdz7zcu6m0xnjfewkcxkpkdl84f, the same account that holds StakeSafe Amsterdam's owner badge, and calls update_fee Decimal("0.25") on the validator. Confirmed at the register at epoch 339,438 on 30 August 2026 07:06 UTC: effective_fee_factor.current 0.02 with pending 0.25 effective at epoch 342,482, on 142,194,735 XRD. The claim asked only for the request to be filed, so it settles now; whether 25% is actually charged is a separate question that the epoch answers around 9 September.Wiki maintenance sweep, 30 August 2026

Every recap

4 of 4 predictions hit (100%), 4 still open. The series is published every Sunday and carried in full by its own feed.

Sep 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#11Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026Rehearsing the RestartSix days stopped, and the fix still unmerged.17 / 2

Aug 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#10Aug 24–30, 2026A Test Network Replays Fifteen Months in Two HoursA threshold is a measuring instrument, and it reports nothing when every hand belongs to the same body.15 / 0
#9Aug 17–23, 2026CaviarNine Leaves, and Its Contracts Stay LiveAn operator owns the part that leaves; the ledger holds the part that stays.14 / 0
#8Aug 10–16, 2026A Post-Quantum Signature Lands in the New EngineAuthority that travels with a checkable mark, versus authority asserted by a name.9 / 1
#7Aug 3–9, 2026Milestone 1 Done, and the New Engine Goes PublicThe shaft is turning faster and nothing is attached to it.13 / 0
#6Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026Hyperscale Gets Its Own Virtual MachineA road cannot be widened into a railway.12 / 2

Jul 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#5Jul 20–26, 2026Hyperscale Answers the Sharding QuestionsHyperscale's design was set against the standard list of sharding problems and answered point by point, and the Foundation put the DAO about a month out.14 / 1
#4Jul 13–19, 2026The Consensus Work Is Nearly DoneThe consensus half of the Rust rebuild is essentially built and formally verified, and after a week of worry, candidates began standing for the council.14 / 0
#3Jul 6–12, 2026hyperscale-rs Closes On Its First MilestoneEverything that moved this week was built by the community: the Rust rebuild of Radix's scaling design, a Rust SDK, and Hookah going open source.19 / 1

Mar 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#2Mar 16–22, 2026Hyperscale, One Month OpenA month after the Foundation published the Hyperscale code, its 500,000 transactions-per-second result is something anyone can rebuild and check.13 / 2
#1Mar 9–15, 2026The Handover BeginsThe Foundation invited outside operators to take over three services it runs itself, and the elected council that will oversee the process took its seat.12 / 4
HydrateLast updated 20h agov1.23.024 revisionsVerified Sep 11, 2026