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Every week the Radix Week in Review records what the ecosystem said would happen, with a date by which it should have happened and the check that will settle it. When the date arrives the claim is scored against the ledger, the repository or the source, and the result is kept here whichever way it went. Nothing is removed from this page because it turned out badly, and nothing is recorded that has no date and no check.

Open predictions

The halt is over. Radix mainnet committed nothing between state version 557,840,627 at 21:19:48 UTC on 31 August 2026 and state version 557,840,628 at 11:35:28 UTC on 11 September. Claims scored during the halt used reads pinned to a named ledger state, which the Gateway answers while it refuses unpinned reads. Earlier notes on this page gave the last state as 557,840,622; that is where the Gateway’s status endpoint stopped, five state versions short of the ledger. Reads pinned to 557,840,622 remain valid, because that state was committed.

ClaimWhoDue byHow it gets checkedRecorded
Radix Charts V2’s fee rises from 2.5% to 15% at epoch 345,107, as its queued request says.Radix Charts V22026-10-04Gateway /state/validators/list for validator_rdx1svxx0jetjwnptndj60sm8h7ljs0v88fl6xhwcyp6ar397agwd0ezaz. At epoch 342,483 (20 September 2026, 11:06 UTC) effective_fee_factor.current reads 0.025 with a pending fee_factor of 0.15 effective at epoch 345,107, on 23,562,035 XRD staked. At 300 seconds an epoch that lands around 15:00 UTC on 29 September. Hit if effective_fee_factor.current reads 0.15 at any epoch at or after 345,107 by the due date; miss if the request is withdrawn or the charged fee reads anything else. Read effective_fee_factor, not validator_fee_factor, which the engine does not rewrite when a request lands.2026-09-20
GP-PRE-1, the proposal ratifying the Radix DAO Charter and Governance Framework, closes with its quorum and 66% approval both met.Radix DAO2026-10-04vote.radixdao.org/proposal/0. The Governance Proposal opened on 25 September 2026 and closes at 15:18 UTC on 2 October. It needs a quorum of 10% of eligible voting power, 1,350.83M XRD, and 66% of decisive votes in favour. Read by a wiki sweep at 19:05 UTC on 26 September: 109 accounts, 900.21M XRD Approve, none Reject or Abstain; a community member put turnout at 70% of the quorum on the morning of 27 September (t.me/radix_dlt/1005197). Hit if the page shows the proposal accepted or passed after close; miss if it closes short of either threshold.2026-09-27
Gate re-enables XRD deposits, which have been off since the 31 August halt.Gate2026-10-11As first recorded this claim asked for a second centralised exchange to resume XRD deposits, withdrawals or spot trading, on the understanding that KuCoin’s 18 September reopening was the first. That was wrong and the claim is rewritten rather than scored on a mistake. Read at 11:4x UTC on 20 September 2026, Gate’s spot currency endpoint https://api.gateio.ws/api/v4/spot/currencies/XRD returns delisted false, trade_disabled false, withdraw_disabled false and deposit_disabled true, with deposit_disabled true on both the native XRD chain and the wrapped ETH route; XRD_USDT is quoting with 19.6M XRD of 24-hour base volume, so Gate never suspended trading and has restored withdrawals. KuCoin’s https://api.kucoin.com/api/v3/currencies/XRD returns isDepositEnabled and isWithdrawEnabled both true. Hit when Gate’s endpoint returns deposit_disabled false for the native XRD chain by the due date; miss while it stays true. Read the API rather than the announcements page: Gate published no notice for the September changes, which is why the reopening had to be measured rather than read.2026-09-20
All four fee increases queued in one transaction on 23 September take effect as queued: Radstakes 25% to 40%, RadixStake 14.9% to 29.89%, Sirius and Polaris 0% to 25%.Radstakes, RadixStake, Sirius, Polaris2026-10-11Gateway POST /state/validators/list for validator_rdx1sw5zkx2h6hp6k0js6dqaaxpz4580awncmm0rlzv7ufcf97cukjegy8 (Radstakes), validator_rdx1svlpfx0kxp5yk7h8dqrd8uzqtm7dkd0mlmerq6xsy3rng84d4wqnmv (RadixStake), validator_rdx1sd8c8v9tffjtgqtuzygnctrmyfnhkd63avcgpzuknx3dlklds85rkv (Sirius) and validator_rdx1sv7zpyuj27ycmcsnw0de94j2rp93csq6gvcm4dl4yh4p4fxv9j5pqx (Polaris). At epoch 344,501 (27 September 2026) each carries effective_fee_factor.pending at epoch 347,421 with fee factors 0.4, 0.2989, 0.25 and 0.25, holding 93.3M, 107.9M, 106.1M and 111.5M XRD. At 300 seconds an epoch that lands around 13:00 UTC on 7 October. Hit if all four read effective_fee_factor.current at their queued value at any epoch at or after 347,421 by the due date; miss if any request is withdrawn or any reads otherwise. Read effective_fee_factor, not validator_fee_factor.2026-09-27
The Marshall Islands issues a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC.Radix Accountability Council2026-10-25The Radix Accountability Council reported on 29 August 2026 that it and counsel had agreed amended terms with MIDAO, that payment and submission of RADIX DAO LLC to the Marshall Islands government follow, and that the filing rolls out from Monday 31 August. It also said the registry takes four to six weeks to grant and issue the certificate once the submission is complete, and that it would report advancements rather than every step. Hit when a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC is published or announced, on radixdao.org notices, in the RadixAccountabilityCouncil channel, or in the Marshall Islands registry. The six-week window from 31 August closes on 12 October; this allows a further fortnight. Re-read 5 September 2026, and the date this window is measured from has moved. RAC member Tadkis posted at 13:17:43 UTC on 5 September, at t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/988, that the agreement with MIDAO has been signed and the registration fee paid, and that formal registration is scheduled to begin on Monday, which is 7 September and a week later than the 31 August the council gave on 29 August. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, so the fortnight of slack recorded above is now six days. Re-read 7 September 2026 at 23:06 UTC, and the Monday the window is measured from has now been reported on. In its status update at 20:45:41 UTC, t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1000, the council says the sign-up for MIDAO’s service is concluded and that the transition council is working through the remaining administrative steps, up to the point where it is for MIDAO to submit the request to the Marshall Islands. So the engagement is complete and the filing with the registry has not been made, which leaves the four-to-six week grant window not yet started. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, six days inside this claim’s due date.2026-08-30
At least one Radix DAO governance document reads as in force, with its SHA-256 digest recorded on the ledger.Radix DAO2026-11-01Re-recorded after 2026-08-18-dao-first-document missed on 20 September 2026 with 26 documents and none in force. The Radix Accountability Council said on 17 September, at t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037, that the discussion phase of the governance framework ratification ends on 18 September and the process moves to the next phase, which is the first movement on this in a month. Hit when radixdao.org/govern shows at least one rule-bearing document with a status other than pending or "Signed · awaiting ratification", and its SHA-256 digest is recorded on the Radix ledger; a ratified GP-PRE-1 that the page reflects settles it. Signing is not ratification and an announcement of a vote is not a result.2026-09-20

Resolved

ClaimDue byOutcomeEvidenceScored in
CaviarNine's two validators, unmentioned in its departure announcement, are deregistered, sold, or have a fee change filed against them.2026-10-04HitHit, a week before the due date. Transaction txid_rdx1ksxuuge5ca3qc7ghuermxzrey07yz2tjhyffwx4yzfge3ulpg74sm2t92u, committed at 14:35:35 UTC on 23 September 2026 in epoch 343,389, calls update_fee Decimal("0.25") on both validators, which had been renamed Sirius (CaviarNine-1) and Polaris (CaviarNine-2) between 17 and 19 September. Read with no at_ledger_state at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,610 on 27 September, both read effective_fee_factor.current 0 with effective_fee_factor.pending 0.25 at epoch 347,421, on 106,110,000 and 111,460,000 XRD; radixscan returns the same transaction. Both remain registered. The same transaction also queued increases on Radstakes and RadixStake.Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
Daffy (Supreme)’s fee rises from 5% to 20% at epoch 344,149, as its queued request says.2026-09-27HitHit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:14 UTC on 27 September 2026, POST /state/validators/list answers HTTP 200 at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,610, and validator_rdx1svug50cdlalm6plazajrmntf209j5azf57xeukuhx2hw7e7ut5mmz8 reads effective_fee_factor.current 0.2 on 51,594,800 XRD with no pending entry. The radixscan MCP reproduces it at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,640: fee_percentage 20, raw_fee_percentage 5. The stored factor still reads 0.05, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate. The settling epoch 344,149 passed around 06:00 UTC on 26 September, inside the due date.Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
The Radix Accountability Council publishes its report on the 31 August exploit and the restart.2026-09-27HitHit, with the authorship noted. The written account came from the Radix Foundation rather than the council: Public Incident Report RDX-INC-2026-0831, published on the Radix blog on 17 September 2026, which describes the vault-authorisation defect, its origin in a June 2023 code change, the response timeline and the Eagle Ray fix. The council posted it to its own channel the same day at 15:59 UTC, t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037, as the post mortem it had asked for time to coordinate on 11 September. The check asked for a written account describing the defect and the fix posted to the council channel, and that is met.Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
At least one of the Radix DAO's 24 governance documents moves from pending to in force, with its SHA-256 digest recorded on the ledger.2026-09-20MissMiss. Read 20 September 2026, radixdao.org/govern lists 26 rule-bearing documents, 25 of them reading "Signed · awaiting ratification" with a published SHA-256 digest and the Roles Registry pending, every digest recorded in ratification proposal GP-PRE-1. The page states in its own words that "Nothing here is in force yet", and its header adds that the ratification vote is pending and community decisions are advisory until activation. No document reads as active and no digest is recorded on the ledger, so neither half of the claim is met. The Radix Accountability Council said on 17 September, at t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037, that the discussion phase of the framework ratification ends on 18 September and the process moves to the next phase, so the vote that would settle this had not been held when the claim fell due. Five readings over 33 days (18 August, twice on 30 August, 5 September, 20 September) found the same status.Radix Week in Review, 20 September 2026
Leaf Node’s fee rises from 1% to 100% at epoch 341,223, as its queued request says.2026-09-17HitHit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:06 UTC on 20 September 2026, POST /state/validators/list answers HTTP 200 at epoch 342,483, state version 558,981,649, and validator_rdx1swzn5hvtut6yq0zxqqsa0wk4rnkfd8wewvnphzrckau22pun2lv86t reads effective_fee_factor.current 1 on 25,589,948.845796907639273623 XRD, with no effective_fee_factor.pending and no validator_fee_change_request. The radixscan MCP reproduces it a minute later at epoch 342,483, state version 558,981,677: fee_percentage 100, raw_fee_percentage 1, registered, accepting delegated stake, uptime 99.95%. The stored factor still reads 0.01, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate and the reason this check named the effective fee. The settling epoch 341,223 passed around 02:00 UTC on 16 September, inside the due date; this read is four days later and no intervening change request exists, so the fee has read 1 since it landed.Radix Week in Review, 20 September 2026
hyperscale-vm records at least 200 commits in the fortnight from 31 August to 13 September 2026.2026-09-14MissMiss, and the first on this ledger. Read at 07:12 UTC on 14 September 2026, GET /repos/hyperscalers/hyperscale-vm/commits with since=2026-08-31T00:00:00Z and until=2026-09-14T00:00:00Z returns 155 commits on main, all by flightofthefox and none of them merges, against a hit condition of 200. The first scoring read, at 03:06 UTC, returned 109 and said no held-back work could still land inside the window. That was wrong for the reason this entry's check already records: a commit listing dates the commit, not the push. Two pushes to main after the window closed, at 05:15 and 06:45 UTC on 14 September, carried 46 commits dated inside it, 8 more on 11 September and 16 and 22 on 12 and 13 September, the newest d69b4746 at 23:55 UTC on 13 September. By author date the fortnight now runs 6 commits on 31 August, then 13, 8, 9, 2 and 2 to 5 September, none on 6 September, then 10, 8, 11, 10, 38, 16 and 22 to 13 September. The seven days before the window held 338. The count is 45 short of the line, and a later push of older work could still move it.Wiki maintenance sweep, 14 September 2026
Radix mainnet commits a round again, ending the halt that began on 31 August 2026.2026-09-20HitHit on 11 September 2026, nine days before the due date. Gateway /stream/transactions shows state version 557,840,627 committed at 21:19:48.939 UTC on 31 August and the next, 557,840,628, at 11:35:28.96 UTC on 11 September, in epoch 339,897; Eagle Ray enacted at the start of epoch 339,898 and the first user transactions committed at 11:39:25 UTC. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:04 UTC on 13 September 2026, POST /state/validators/list answers HTTP 200 at epoch 340,467, state version 558,030,223, above the 339,896 the check names. A wiki sweep scored this on 11 September in the page blocks but not in this state, so the index would have reverted it on the next sync.Radix Week in Review, 13 September 2026
A babylon-node release carrying the Eagle Ray protocol update is published.2026-09-20HitHit on 8 September 2026, two days before it was scored, and the delay is this ledger’s own fault rather than the release’s. Read at 03:07 UTC on 10 September 2026, GET /repos/radixdlt/babylon-node/releases returns v1.4.0.0-RC1, named Eagle Ray v1.4.0.0-RC1, published 2026-09-08T15:35:42Z from merge commit 7400951e with seven assets attached. That is a tag above v1.3.0.5 whose notes name Eagle Ray, which is the hit condition as recorded on 6 September. The release is flagged pre-release, so GitHub’s /releases/latest still resolves to v1.3.0.5-test.1 of 2026-09-08T12:28:06Z and an operator following the documented install path gets the older build; that matters to a node runner and it is not part of the check, which asked whether a release carrying the protocol update exists. It does.Wiki maintenance sweep, 10 September 2026
StakeSafe's three validators raise their fees as scheduled: Amsterdam and Rotterdam from 15% to 25%, Seed Node from 15% to 100%.2026-09-06HitHit, and scored on evidence the 30 August note recorded as unreadable. The Gateway refuses an unpinned state read while it is five days behind the network, but the freshness guard is skipped for a read that names a ledger state, and the frozen state is 288 epochs past Amsterdam's settling epoch. Read at 11:02 UTC on 6 September 2026 with at_ledger_state pinned to state version 557,840,622, epoch 339,896, the final state the ledger reached at 21:19:06.179 UTC on 31 August 2026: /state/validators/list returns HTTP 200 with all 287 validators. StakeSafe Amsterdam (validator_rdx1s066xuq885l0mttgmx4ptflte6fepkt0c06mqnqtdgajj4mcwh70q4) reads effective_fee_factor.current 0.25 on 75,671,832 XRD; StakeSafe Rotterdam (validator_rdx1s048k34ctk3m57gumema2e5jmhfxhdryyr5hq42xa9q59pvn8lezg8) 0.25 on 78,235,400 XRD; StakeSafe Seed Node (validator_rdx1svlvyezsxp467pznd2kfnhqpenmw7hpdgnxjgu3s8mzxtruz77d3q3) 1 on 210,603 XRD. All three still store validator_fee_factor 0.15, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate and the reason the check named effective_fee_factor. Three of three as claimed, effective at epochs 339,608 and 339,609, roughly a day before the network stopped.Radix Week in Review, 6 September 2026
StakeSafe files a fee change request on the Avaunt Staking validator it bought on 21 August, raising the fee above 2%.2026-09-20HitHit on 26 August 2026, 25 days before the due date, and the settling transaction is on the ledger: txid_rdx17sfhjgn0j8ymny889992j8aemk3q6vrjs2x97v6xpccrhe35w63snnyd3s at 20:47:04 UTC, epoch 338,450, state version 555,398,021. It proves the Avaunt owner badge [834bcbdc3bf9d9211f827af8b2c84c56cd156a4de412690718c624a2beb0] from account_rdx16xrp5e8faqxfa8j20xh5u29js8umdz7zcu6m0xnjfewkcxkpkdl84f, the same account that holds StakeSafe Amsterdam's owner badge, and calls update_fee Decimal("0.25") on the validator. Confirmed at the register at epoch 339,438 on 30 August 2026 07:06 UTC: effective_fee_factor.current 0.02 with pending 0.25 effective at epoch 342,482, on 142,194,735 XRD. The claim asked only for the request to be filed, so it settles now; whether 25% is actually charged is a separate question that the epoch answers around 9 September.Wiki maintenance sweep, 30 August 2026

Every recap

8 of 10 predictions hit (80%), 6 still open. The series is published every Sunday and carried in full by its own feed.

Sep 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#14Sep 21–27, 2026Four Validators, One TransactionFour names on the register, one signing behind their fees.19 / 17
#13Sep 14–20, 2026The Incident Report, and One Exchange BackThe Radix Foundation published its report on the 31 August defect, KuCoin reopened XRD trading, and the engine source shows where the check was missing.17 / 12
#12Sep 7–13, 2026Mainnet Restarts, Exchanges Stay ShutThe ledger restarted; the exchanges, and the records other people kept of the halt, did not.23 / 17
#11Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026Rehearsing the RestartSix days stopped, and the fix still unmerged.18 / 2

Aug 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#10Aug 24–30, 2026A Test Network Replays Fifteen Months in Two HoursA threshold is a measuring instrument, and it reports nothing when every hand belongs to the same body.15 / 0
#9Aug 17–23, 2026CaviarNine Leaves, and Its Contracts Stay LiveAn operator owns the part that leaves; the ledger holds the part that stays.14 / 0
#8Aug 10–16, 2026A Post-Quantum Signature Lands in the New EngineAuthority that travels with a checkable mark, versus authority asserted by a name.9 / 1
#7Aug 3–9, 2026Milestone 1 Done, and the New Engine Goes PublicThe shaft is turning faster and nothing is attached to it.13 / 0
#6Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026Hyperscale Gets Its Own Virtual MachineA road cannot be widened into a railway.12 / 2

Jul 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#5Jul 20–26, 2026Hyperscale Answers the Sharding QuestionsHyperscale's design was set against the standard list of sharding problems and answered point by point, and the Foundation put the DAO about a month out.15 / 1
#4Jul 13–19, 2026The Consensus Work Is Nearly DoneThe consensus half of the Rust rebuild is essentially built and formally verified, and after a week of worry, candidates began standing for the council.14 / 0
#3Jul 6–12, 2026hyperscale-rs Closes On Its First MilestoneEverything that moved this week was built by the community: the Rust rebuild of Radix's scaling design, a Rust SDK, and Hookah going open source.19 / 1

Mar 2026

#WeekTitleWhat it was aboutLinks (wiki / out)
#2Mar 16–22, 2026Hyperscale, One Month OpenA month after the Foundation published the Hyperscale code, its 500,000 transactions-per-second result is something anyone can rebuild and check.13 / 2
#1Mar 9–15, 2026The Handover BeginsThe Foundation invited outside operators to take over three services it runs itself, and the elected council that will oversee the process took its seat.13 / 4
HydrateLast updated 10h agov1.30.031 revisionsVerified Sep 11, 2026