Radix Week in Review

Every week the Radix Week in Review records what the ecosystem said would happen, with a date by which it should have happened and the check that will settle it. When the date arrives the claim is scored against the ledger, the repository or the source, and the result is kept here whichever way it went. Nothing is removed from this page because it turned out badly, and nothing is recorded that has no date and no check.

Open predictions

The halt is over. Radix mainnet committed nothing between state version 557,840,627 at 21:19:48 UTC on 31 August 2026 and state version 557,840,628 at 11:35:28 UTC on 11 September. Claims scored during the halt used reads pinned to a named ledger state, which the Gateway answers while it refuses unpinned reads. Earlier notes on this page gave the last state as 557,840,622; that is where the Gateway’s status endpoint stopped, five state versions short of the ledger. Reads pinned to 557,840,622 remain valid, because that state was committed.

Claim	Who	Due by	How it gets checked	Recorded
The Marshall Islands issues a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC.	Radix Accountability Council	2026-10-25	The Radix Accountability Council reported on 29 August 2026 that it and counsel had agreed amended terms with MIDAO, that payment and submission of RADIX DAO LLC to the Marshall Islands government follow, and that the filing rolls out from Monday 31 August. It also said the registry takes four to six weeks to grant and issue the certificate once the submission is complete, and that it would report advancements rather than every step. Hit when a certificate of formation for RADIX DAO LLC is published or announced, on radixdao.org notices, in the `RadixAccountabilityCouncil` channel, or in the Marshall Islands registry. The six-week window from 31 August closes on 12 October; this allows a further fortnight. Re-read 5 September 2026, and the date this window is measured from has moved. RAC member Tadkis posted at 13:17:43 UTC on 5 September, at `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/988`, that the agreement with MIDAO has been signed and the registration fee paid, and that formal registration is scheduled to begin on Monday, which is 7 September and a week later than the 31 August the council gave on 29 August. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, so the fortnight of slack recorded above is now six days. Re-read 7 September 2026 at 23:06 UTC, and the Monday the window is measured from has now been reported on. In its status update at 20:45:41 UTC, `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1000`, the council says the sign-up for MIDAO’s service is concluded and that the transition council is working through the remaining administrative steps, up to the point where it is for MIDAO to submit the request to the Marshall Islands. So the engagement is complete and the filing with the registry has not been made, which leaves the four-to-six week grant window not yet started. Six weeks from 7 September closes on 19 October, six days inside this claim’s due date. Re-read 11 October 2026: the council said on 6 October, at `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1145`, that registration is confirmed as being on the Marshall Islands' side and in its last stages, within the period the registry usually takes. No certificate had been announced by 11 October, and `radixdao.org/govern` lists the Certificate of Formation as "Signed · not yet in force".	2026-08-30
Sirius and Polaris raise their fees from 25% to 50% at epoch 352,012, as the request filed on 9 October says.	Sirius and Polaris	2026-10-25	Gateway `/state/validators/list` for Sirius (`validator_rdx1sd8c8v9tffjtgqtuzygnctrmyfnhkd63avcgpzuknx3dlklds85rkv`) and Polaris (`validator_rdx1sv7zpyuj27ycmcsnw0de94j2rp93csq6gvcm4dl4yh4p4fxv9j5pqx`). At epoch 348,533 (11 October 2026, 11:15 UTC) each reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.25 with a pending fee_factor of 0.5 effective at epoch 352,012, on 106,833,723 and 74,580,982 XRD, filed by transaction `txid_rdx1scjwhz6uyd0k43n2kdhrg8qddzuhn5tsnsrnyh9g5h4pxvpftw0s06kcln` at 13:11 UTC on 9 October from the account that signed the 23 September rises. At 300 seconds an epoch that lands around 13:00 UTC on 23 October. Hit if both read `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.5 at any epoch at or after 352,012 by the due date; miss if either request is withdrawn or either charged fee reads anything else. Read `effective_fee_factor`, not `validator_fee_factor`.	2026-10-11
At least one Radix DAO governance document reads as in force, with its SHA-256 digest recorded on the ledger.	Radix DAO	2026-11-01	Re-recorded after `2026-08-18-dao-first-document` missed on 20 September 2026 with 26 documents and none in force. The Radix Accountability Council said on 17 September, at `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037`, that the discussion phase of the governance framework ratification ends on 18 September and the process moves to the next phase, which is the first movement on this in a month. Hit when `radixdao.org/govern` shows at least one rule-bearing document with a status other than pending or "Signed · awaiting ratification", and its SHA-256 digest is recorded on the Radix ledger; a ratified GP-PRE-1 that the page reflects settles it. Signing is not ratification and an announcement of a vote is not a result. Re-read 11 October 2026: `radixdao.org/govern` marks 21 of 24 documents "Ratified · v1.0.0 · in force at activation", two "Signed · not yet in force" and the Roles Registry pending, and states that nothing there is in force until the Activation Vote passes. Ratified is not in force on the page's own terms, and the page says the digests are recorded in the ratified manifest, not on the ledger, so the claim is untouched.	2026-09-20

Resolved

Claim	Due by	Outcome	Evidence	Scored in
Gate re-enables XRD deposits, which have been off since the 31 August halt.	2026-10-11	Miss	Miss. Read at 11:15 UTC on 11 October 2026, the due date, `https://api.gateio.ws/api/v4/spot/currencies/XRD` returns delisted false, trade_disabled false, `withdraw_disabled` false and `deposit_disabled` true, with `deposit_disabled` true on both the XRD chain and the ETH chain. Deposits stayed off for the whole three weeks the claim ran, and Gate published no notice about them.	Radix Week in Review, 11 October 2026
RadixTalk’s fee rises from 1.5% to 50% at epoch 348,297, as its queued request says.	2026-10-18	Hit	Hit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:15 UTC on 11 October 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 348,533, state version 562,414,332, and `validator_rdx1s0qzv2vmxydpnglk36mczrdwczpsskuzek2cs5nnld6j533rzatmln` reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.5 with no pending entry, on 67,299,055 XRD. The radixscan MCP reproduces it at epoch 348,533, state version 562,414,340: fee_percentage 50, `raw_fee_percentage` 1.5, registered, accepting delegated stake. The stored factor still reads 0.015. The settling epoch 348,297 passed around 15:00 UTC on 10 October, inside the due date. Stake fell from 73,007,050 XRD at the 4 October reading to 67,299,055.	Radix Week in Review, 11 October 2026
All four fee increases queued in one transaction on 23 September take effect as queued: Radstakes 25% to 40%, RadixStake 14.9% to 29.89%, Sirius and Polaris 0% to 25%.	2026-10-11	Hit	Hit, two days before the due date. Read with no at_ledger_state at 19:05 UTC on 9 October 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 348,051, state version 561,990,122, and all four read `effective_fee_factor.current` at their queued value: Radstakes 0.4 on 93,474,561 XRD, RadixStake 0.2989 on 108,074,174 XRD, Sirius 0.25 on 106,801,938 XRD and Polaris 0.25 on 74,558,790 XRD. None was withdrawn. The settling epoch 347,421 passed on 7 October. Sirius and Polaris now each carry a further pending fee_factor of 0.5, effective at epoch 352,012.	Wiki maintenance sweep, 9 October 2026
Radix Charts V2’s fee rises from 2.5% to 15% at epoch 345,107, as its queued request says.	2026-10-04	Hit	Hit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:15 UTC on 4 October 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 346,517, state version 561,023,490, and `validator_rdx1svxx0jetjwnptndj60sm8h7ljs0v88fl6xhwcyp6ar397agwd0ezaz` reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.15 with no pending entry, on 23,619,794 XRD. The radixscan MCP reproduces it at epoch 346,517, state version 561,023,460: fee_percentage 15, `raw_fee_percentage` 2.5. The settling epoch 345,107 passed around 15:00 UTC on 29 September, inside the due date.	Radix Week in Review, 4 October 2026
GP-PRE-1, the proposal ratifying the Radix DAO Charter and Governance Framework, closes with its quorum and 66% approval both met.	2026-10-04	Hit	Hit. GP-PRE-1 closed at 15:18 UTC on 2 October 2026. Read 4 October 2026, the result endpoint `https://vote.radixdao.org/vote-results?type=proposal`&entityId=0 returns one option only, Approve, with 1,857,159,221.57 XRD of vote power, above the 1,350.83M quorum, and no Reject or Abstain, so approval is 100% against the 66% bar. A wiki sweep counted 193 accounts from /account-votes. The Radix Accountability Council announced the same figures that evening at `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1126`: 1,857.16M in votes, 100% approval, Charter and Policies in effect. `radixdao.org/govern` had not been updated on 4 October and still read that nothing there is in force; that bears on `2026-09-20-dao-first-document-retry`, not on this claim.	Radix Week in Review, 4 October 2026
CaviarNine's two validators, unmentioned in its departure announcement, are deregistered, sold, or have a fee change filed against them.	2026-10-04	Hit	Hit, a week before the due date. Transaction `txid_rdx1ksxuuge5ca3qc7ghuermxzrey07yz2tjhyffwx4yzfge3ulpg74sm2t92u`, committed at 14:35:35 UTC on 23 September 2026 in epoch 343,389, calls update_fee Decimal("0.25") on both validators, which had been renamed Sirius (CaviarNine-1) and Polaris (CaviarNine-2) between 17 and 19 September. Read with no at_ledger_state at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,610 on 27 September, both read `effective_fee_factor.current` 0 with `effective_fee_factor.pending` 0.25 at epoch 347,421, on 106,110,000 and 111,460,000 XRD; radixscan returns the same transaction. Both remain registered. The same transaction also queued increases on Radstakes and RadixStake.	Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
Daffy (Supreme)’s fee rises from 5% to 20% at epoch 344,149, as its queued request says.	2026-09-27	Hit	Hit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:14 UTC on 27 September 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,610, and `validator_rdx1svug50cdlalm6plazajrmntf209j5azf57xeukuhx2hw7e7ut5mmz8` reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.2 on 51,594,800 XRD with no pending entry. The radixscan MCP reproduces it at epoch 344,501, state version 560,016,640: fee_percentage 20, `raw_fee_percentage` 5. The stored factor still reads 0.05, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate. The settling epoch 344,149 passed around 06:00 UTC on 26 September, inside the due date.	Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
The Radix Accountability Council publishes its report on the 31 August exploit and the restart.	2026-09-27	Hit	Hit, with the authorship noted. The written account came from the Radix Foundation rather than the council: Public Incident Report `RDX-INC-2026-0831`, published on the Radix blog on 17 September 2026, which describes the `vault-authorisation` defect, its origin in a June 2023 code change, the response timeline and the Eagle Ray fix. The council posted it to its own channel the same day at 15:59 UTC, `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037`, as the post mortem it had asked for time to coordinate on 11 September. The check asked for a written account describing the defect and the fix posted to the council channel, and that is met.	Radix Week in Review, 27 September 2026
At least one of the Radix DAO's 24 governance documents moves from pending to in force, with its SHA-256 digest recorded on the ledger.	2026-09-20	Miss	Miss. Read 20 September 2026, `radixdao.org/govern` lists 26 rule-bearing documents, 25 of them reading "Signed · awaiting ratification" with a published SHA-256 digest and the Roles Registry pending, every digest recorded in ratification proposal GP-PRE-1. The page states in its own words that "Nothing here is in force yet", and its header adds that the ratification vote is pending and community decisions are advisory until activation. No document reads as active and no digest is recorded on the ledger, so neither half of the claim is met. The Radix Accountability Council said on 17 September, at `t.me/RadixAccountabilityCouncil/1037`, that the discussion phase of the framework ratification ends on 18 September and the process moves to the next phase, so the vote that would settle this had not been held when the claim fell due. Five readings over 33 days (18 August, twice on 30 August, 5 September, 20 September) found the same status.	Radix Week in Review, 20 September 2026
Leaf Node’s fee rises from 1% to 100% at epoch 341,223, as its queued request says.	2026-09-17	Hit	Hit. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:06 UTC on 20 September 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 342,483, state version 558,981,649, and `validator_rdx1swzn5hvtut6yq0zxqqsa0wk4rnkfd8wewvnphzrckau22pun2lv86t` reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 1 on 25,589,`948.845796907639273623` XRD, with no `effective_fee_factor.pending` and no `validator_fee_change_request`. The radixscan MCP reproduces it a minute later at epoch 342,483, state version 558,981,677: fee_percentage 100, `raw_fee_percentage` 1, registered, accepting delegated stake, uptime 99.95%. The stored factor still reads 0.01, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate and the reason this check named the effective fee. The settling epoch 341,223 passed around 02:00 UTC on 16 September, inside the due date; this read is four days later and no intervening change request exists, so the fee has read 1 since it landed.	Radix Week in Review, 20 September 2026
hyperscale-vm records at least 200 commits in the fortnight from 31 August to 13 September 2026.	2026-09-14	Miss	Miss, and the first on this ledger. Read at 07:12 UTC on 14 September 2026, GET `/repos/hyperscalers/hyperscale-vm/commits` with `since=2026-08-31T00:00:00Z` and `until=2026-09-14T00:00:00Z` returns 155 commits on main, all by flightofthefox and none of them merges, against a hit condition of 200. The first scoring read, at 03:06 UTC, returned 109 and said no held-back work could still land inside the window. That was wrong for the reason this entry's check already records: a commit listing dates the commit, not the push. Two pushes to main after the window closed, at 05:15 and 06:45 UTC on 14 September, carried 46 commits dated inside it, 8 more on 11 September and 16 and 22 on 12 and 13 September, the newest d69b4746 at 23:55 UTC on 13 September. By author date the fortnight now runs 6 commits on 31 August, then 13, 8, 9, 2 and 2 to 5 September, none on 6 September, then 10, 8, 11, 10, 38, 16 and 22 to 13 September. The seven days before the window held 338. The count is 45 short of the line, and a later push of older work could still move it.	Wiki maintenance sweep, 14 September 2026
Radix mainnet commits a round again, ending the halt that began on 31 August 2026.	2026-09-20	Hit	Hit on 11 September 2026, nine days before the due date. Gateway `/stream/transactions` shows state version 557,840,627 committed at 21:19:48.939 UTC on 31 August and the next, 557,840,628, at 11:35:28.96 UTC on 11 September, in epoch 339,897; Eagle Ray enacted at the start of epoch 339,898 and the first user transactions committed at 11:39:25 UTC. Read with no at_ledger_state at 11:04 UTC on 13 September 2026, POST `/state/validators/list` answers HTTP 200 at epoch 340,467, state version 558,030,223, above the 339,896 the check names. A wiki sweep scored this on 11 September in the page blocks but not in this state, so the index would have reverted it on the next sync.	Radix Week in Review, 13 September 2026
A babylon-node release carrying the Eagle Ray protocol update is published.	2026-09-20	Hit	Hit on 8 September 2026, two days before it was scored, and the delay is this ledger’s own fault rather than the release’s. Read at 03:07 UTC on 10 September 2026, GET `/repos/radixdlt/babylon-node/releases` returns v1.4.0.0-RC1, named Eagle Ray v1.4.0.0-RC1, published `2026-09-08T15:35:42Z` from merge commit 7400951e with seven assets attached. That is a tag above v1.3.0.5 whose notes name Eagle Ray, which is the hit condition as recorded on 6 September. The release is flagged pre-release, so GitHub’s `/releases/latest` still resolves to v1.3.0.5-test.1 of `2026-09-08T12:28:06Z` and an operator following the documented install path gets the older build; that matters to a node runner and it is not part of the check, which asked whether a release carrying the protocol update exists. It does.	Wiki maintenance sweep, 10 September 2026
StakeSafe's three validators raise their fees as scheduled: Amsterdam and Rotterdam from 15% to 25%, Seed Node from 15% to 100%.	2026-09-06	Hit	Hit, and scored on evidence the 30 August note recorded as unreadable. The Gateway refuses an unpinned state read while it is five days behind the network, but the freshness guard is skipped for a read that names a ledger state, and the frozen state is 288 epochs past Amsterdam's settling epoch. Read at 11:02 UTC on 6 September 2026 with at_ledger_state pinned to state version 557,840,622, epoch 339,896, the final state the ledger reached at 21:19:06.179 UTC on 31 August 2026: `/state/validators/list` returns HTTP 200 with all 287 validators. StakeSafe Amsterdam (`validator_rdx1s066xuq885l0mttgmx4ptflte6fepkt0c06mqnqtdgajj4mcwh70q4`) reads `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.25 on 75,671,832 XRD; StakeSafe Rotterdam (`validator_rdx1s048k34ctk3m57gumema2e5jmhfxhdryyr5hq42xa9q59pvn8lezg8`) 0.25 on 78,235,400 XRD; StakeSafe Seed Node (`validator_rdx1svlvyezsxp467pznd2kfnhqpenmw7hpdgnxjgu3s8mzxtruz77d3q3`) 1 on 210,603 XRD. All three still store `validator_fee_factor` 0.15, which is the engine declining to rewrite the substate and the reason the check named `effective_fee_factor`. Three of three as claimed, effective at epochs 339,608 and 339,609, roughly a day before the network stopped.	Radix Week in Review, 6 September 2026
StakeSafe files a fee change request on the Avaunt Staking validator it bought on 21 August, raising the fee above 2%.	2026-09-20	Hit	Hit on 26 August 2026, 25 days before the due date, and the settling transaction is on the ledger: `txid_rdx17sfhjgn0j8ymny889992j8aemk3q6vrjs2x97v6xpccrhe35w63snnyd3s` at 20:47:04 UTC, epoch 338,450, state version 555,398,021. It proves the Avaunt owner badge [`834bcbdc3bf9d9211f827af8b2c84c56cd156a4de412690718c624a2beb0`] from `account_rdx16xrp5e8faqxfa8j20xh5u29js8umdz7zcu6m0xnjfewkcxkpkdl84f`, the same account that holds StakeSafe Amsterdam's owner badge, and calls update_fee Decimal("0.25") on the validator. Confirmed at the register at epoch 339,438 on 30 August 2026 07:06 UTC: `effective_fee_factor.current` 0.02 with pending 0.25 effective at epoch 342,482, on 142,194,735 XRD. The claim asked only for the request to be filed, so it settles now; whether 25% is actually charged is a separate question that the epoch answers around 9 September.	Wiki maintenance sweep, 30 August 2026

Every recap

12 of 15 predictions hit (80%), 3 still open. The series is published every Sunday and carried in full by its own feed.

Oct 2026

#	Week	Title	What it was about	Links (wiki / out)
#16	Oct 5–11, 2026	A Refund List for the Stuck hUSDC	The stuck money has a list of owners; the stopped node has lost most of its delegators.	22 / 22
#15	Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026	The Charter Is Ratified	XRD holders ratified the Radix DAO Charter, one account left Polaris ahead of a fee rise, and Radix Guild opened on mainnet.	22 / 17

Sep 2026

#	Week	Title	What it was about	Links (wiki / out)
#14	Sep 21–27, 2026	Four Validators, One Transaction	Four names on the register, one signing behind their fees.	20 / 17
#13	Sep 14–20, 2026	The Incident Report, and One Exchange Back	The Radix Foundation published its report on the 31 August defect, KuCoin reopened XRD trading, and the engine source shows where the check was missing.	17 / 12
#12	Sep 7–13, 2026	Mainnet Restarts, Exchanges Stay Shut	The ledger restarted; the exchanges, and the records other people kept of the halt, did not.	23 / 17
#11	Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026	Rehearsing the Restart	Six days stopped, and the fix still unmerged.	18 / 2

Aug 2026

#	Week	Title	What it was about	Links (wiki / out)
#10	Aug 24–30, 2026	A Test Network Replays Fifteen Months in Two Hours	A threshold is a measuring instrument, and it reports nothing when every hand belongs to the same body.	15 / 0
#9	Aug 17–23, 2026	CaviarNine Leaves, and Its Contracts Stay Live	An operator owns the part that leaves; the ledger holds the part that stays.	14 / 0
#8	Aug 10–16, 2026	A Post-Quantum Signature Lands in the New Engine	Authority that travels with a checkable mark, versus authority asserted by a name.	9 / 1
#7	Aug 3–9, 2026	Milestone 1 Done, and the New Engine Goes Public	The shaft is turning faster and nothing is attached to it.	13 / 0
#6	Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026	Hyperscale Gets Its Own Virtual Machine	A road cannot be widened into a railway.	13 / 2

Jul 2026

#	Week	Title	What it was about	Links (wiki / out)
#5	Jul 20–26, 2026	Hyperscale Answers the Sharding Questions	Hyperscale's design was set against the standard list of sharding problems and answered point by point, and the Foundation put the DAO about a month out.	15 / 1
#4	Jul 13–19, 2026	The Consensus Work Is Nearly Done	The consensus half of the Rust rebuild is essentially built and formally verified, and after a week of worry, candidates began standing for the council.	14 / 0
#3	Jul 6–12, 2026	hyperscale-rs Closes On Its First Milestone	Everything that moved this week was built by the community: the Rust rebuild of Radix's scaling design, a Rust SDK, and Hookah going open source.	19 / 1

Mar 2026

#	Week	Title	What it was about	Links (wiki / out)
#2	Mar 16–22, 2026	Hyperscale, One Month Open	A month after the Foundation published the Hyperscale code, its 500,000 transactions-per-second result is something anyone can rebuild and check.	13 / 2
#1	Mar 9–15, 2026	The Handover Begins	The Foundation invited outside operators to take over three services it runs itself, and the elected council that will oversee the process took its seat.	13 / 4

HydrateLast updated 6d agov1.33.034 revisionsVerified Oct 9, 2026

Latest	Issue #16
Recaps	16
Open predictions	3
Resolved	15
Hit rate	80%
Scoring	Two claims settled on 11 October 2026: RadixTalk charges 50% as queued, a hit, and Gate still had XRD deposits disabled on the due date, a miss.
Tracking since	2026-08-18
Feed	RSS